New publication: Economic incentives for conifers may limit broadleaf expansion in climate-adaptive European forests

Marc Djahangard and Rasoul Yousefpour coordinated a large scale Social Ecological Economic (SEE) analysis involving 10 European Living Labs within the eco2adapt project and investigated how ecological and socioeconomic perceptions shape forest adaptation to climate change.
Drought, pathogens and insects, and wildfires are perceived as major threats to European forests. In response, forest professionals prioritize tree species diversity, broadleaf-conifer mixtures and assisted natural regeneration. At the same time, rising timber demand and prices and increasing operational costs shape socioeconomic perspectives on adaptation. In particular, higher timber prices may favor maintaining or increasing conifer shares, potentially limiting broadleaf expansion. 
The findings highlight the importance of considering ecological and socioeconomic conditions together with different ecosystem service priorities when shaping climate-adaptive European forests.

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Fig. Perceived worsening of forest dynamics and disturbance risks across Europe. Map shows the share of forest professionals at each study location who expect worsening ecological conditions until 2100. For each location, the percentage of respondents anticipating a decrease in productivity or an increase in mortality (forest dynamic) is shown. In addition, the top three disturbance risks (among pathogens & insects, drought, wildfire, and storm) are displayed for each site, representing the proportion of respondents who rated future risk as ‘high’ or ‘very high’ compared to ‘low’ or ‘no risk’. Color intensity indicates the proportion of professionals expecting worsening conditions (ranging from 0% to 100%). Results highlight widespread concern for declining forest productivity, increasing mortality, and elevated disturbance risks, with regional variation in the perceived importance of specific threats.